🎯 Too Many Forks, Not Enough Pie: Why Market Saturation Matters 🎯

Most university viability models stop at the balance sheet. They squint at endowments, obsess over net assets, and nod sagely at depreciation—as if a school’s future can be found buried in the footnotes of a 990 form.

But here’s the truth: a fat endowment doesn’t help if there aren’t enough students to educate.

That’s where Market Saturation comes in—and ignoring it is like trying to plan a buffet without checking how many guests are coming.

So how do we measure Market Saturation?

Glad you asked. Our model doesn’t just track dollars—it forecasts demand. Specifically, we estimate the future population of 15–19-year-olds in each state using the Holt-Winters Forecasting Model (yes, we use real math, not just vibes). This gives us a solid prediction of how many traditional college-aged students each state will likely have in the coming years.

Then we divide that number by the total number of universities (public and private) in that state. Why? Because students don’t care whether your institution is public, private, or blessed by a bishop—they’re looking for value, and they’ll shop around.

This gives us the average number of in-state students each school is fighting for. Think of it as a Hunger Games-style battle for enrollment.

But we’re not done yet.

We then look at each school’s first-time, full-time (FTFT) freshman enrollment, pulled from IPEDS data. This number tells us how many new students a university can actually absorb—its onboarding capacity, if you will. A school might be located in a thriving market, but if its FTFT enrollment is in the double digits, it’s not exactly poised for a growth spurt.

Why does this matter?

Because any analysis of “university health” that ignores how crowded the marketplace is is dangerously incomplete. It's like evaluating the fitness of a sprinter without checking if they’re racing uphill… in flip-flops… during a hailstorm… with 400 other sprinters.

A financially stable school in an oversaturated state is still at risk, especially as the enrollment cliff continues to steepen. Schools with a strong market position and healthy FTFT pipelines have room to adapt. Those without? Well… you know where we track them.

🪦 Curious how your favorite school stacks up? We’re tracking the numbers at universitydeathpool.com. Click, browse, maybe panic a little—but now, at least, you’ll know why Market Saturation matters.